‘Vaccination for all and corona for none’: The country seems to have missed the opportunity to coin this catchline and use it to drive home the point had it been successful in combating Covid 19.

Now with the vaccination shortage, the question on everyone’s lips is when will the vaccine come and redeem us from the scourge of coronavirus. Can the country hope to quickly replenish the depleting stock of the critical antidote to escape any major impact of the third wave of Covid, which is being talked about from all fora?  Even as the second wave seems to be losing its sting -- or is it a wrong assumption — a flush of vaccines for the vast multitude of people fearing contracting the dreaded Covid-19 would have boosted public confidence to fight the deadly disease.

But going by developments so far, it seems an ambitious expectation.

Vaccine conundrum

As events unfold, the vaccine shortage story only gets more baffling with little hope for an early replenishment to meet the government’s objective of procuring 2.67 billion doses before the yearend. As the stocks run thin and with even global pharma giants like Pfizer and Moderna reportedly indicating their inability to meet India’s request for an immediate supply of vaccines, one wonders how the country would overcome the Covid 19-induced ordeals.

While the central government has admitted its failure in getting any favorable response from the vaccine-producing US pharma companies, such requests from the state governments of Punjab and Delhi have also met with refusals. Some states have planned or have already floated global tenders to directly procure vaccines to tide over the crisis, but sans any response.

The central government told the Kerala High Court on April 24 that it was in touch with the two US companies who had said their order books were full and that they would assess their inventory position and revert to the government.

“Based on their surplus and how much they can provide to India, they will come back to the government… based on that we can facilitate the state governments,” was the explanation given by the Union government. The government is understood to have also said that only 57 percent of the doses produced in the country were reaching the people.

Thus, the vaccine issue has snowballed into a most worrying concern at a time the country is still grappling with the deadly pandemic. The new disease of Mucormycosis or 'Black Fungus' found in patients who have recovered from Covid, and the threat of the viral infection finding new hosts in children have only added to the crisis, putting tremendous pressure on resources.

‘Vaccination’, comes the reply in unison from all quarters—epidemiologists, virologists, and other medical professionals and the public.

Was the vaccine policy in India effective so far?  Only a few come up with any positive answer.

States in a spot

After being handed the onus of managing the vaccination program, made more difficult by the central government’s ill-timed addition of the population in the 18-44 age group when the vaccine stock was already thin, the states have found it difficult to cope with the burden.

With neither Serum Institute of India (SII) nor Bharat Biotech International Limited (BBIL) able to suddenly ramp up the capacity to meet the current demand, the problems have only aggravated. SII and BBIL sought time to step up their production and said they would start by July or August.

Meanwhile, the Indian government has put on temporary hold further supply of vaccines to several developing countries, including Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka, under its ‘vaccine diplomacy’ plan after the initial despatch, leaving them not only in the lurch, but straight into the arms of a waiting China. 

“Despite its own needs, during the Covid-19 pandemic, we ensured the supply of vaccines to 123 partner countries", boasted India's Health  Minister Harsh Vardhan, a medical doctor, in an interaction with health ministers of Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) countries earlier this week. 

While the central government has been downplaying the recent shortage - which has been heavily criticised by the opposition for the government ignoring the country's needs while seeking to win accolades abroad - the immunization program has hit a speed breaker. Some states have given priority to the 18-44 group while others are laying their thrust on inoculating the more vulnerable sections by administering the second shot of vaccine to those who earlier received the first dose.

Harsh Vardhan has, however, maintained there is no shortage and that the government has been replenishing the states’ stock of vaccines. He was optimistic about reaching the target of vaccinating every citizen of India or at least the eligible adults by the yearend. In a recent statement, he said India will procure 510 million (51 crores) vaccine doses by July and another 2.16 billion (216 crore) doses by December to fulfill the target of immunization for all adults. However, experts say this is a tall order.

Some silver lining

So far the only positive development has been the soft launch in Hyderabad of the Sputnik V vaccine developed by Russia’s Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology (GRIEM). Now it will be followed by the production of the injection at its Indian partner Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories starting July or August. It proposes to produce 850 million doses annually.  

Also, India expects to get a donation of 80 million doses from the US by July. The US has indicated that it may despatch an early tranche of 20 million doses by June, according to media reports.

India’s eminent heart surgeon, Dr. Devi Shetty, also a member of the National Task Force set up by the Supreme Court to assist the authorities on pandemic-based issues, recently suggested the central government take up the responsibility of procurement and distribution of vaccines. Interacting with a news channel, the ‘people’s doctor’ said the government  should talk to each of the big vaccine producers with an assurance to pay a substantial amount as advance, as an incentive to expedite the production and deliver the vaccine quickly.

He was not in favor of the multi-pronged efforts being made by states and municipal corporations of major cities through global tender as such individual exercises would neither ensure good pricing nor help in prompt delivery of the vaccine.

Unlike India, many countries have successfully vaccinated at least 50-70 percent of their population with one dose already. According to the latest Indian government figures, only around 12 percent of the population has got the first shot, and a meagre 3 percent both the doses. In an indication of a return to pre-pandemic years, a few countries have relaxed some of the guidelines relating to Covid-appropriate behavior, including wearing of face mask - with some caveats of course.

For India, it is a luxury that has a long waiting time!  

(The writer is a veteran journalist and economic analyst. The views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at varadarajan.krishnamurthy@gmail.com)