By recognising Pakistan’s role in the Iran crisis, Brussels is signalling that influence in today's international system is increasingly distributed across multiple actors, not concentrated solely in Washington, Beijing, or Moscow. This fits with the EU’s broader effort to develop a more autonomous and flexible foreign policy in a more multipolar world.
China is a major defence exporter for Myanmar, but it has been arming both the Tatmadaw and the rebel forces. China’s aim is to secure its strategic highway through Myanmar to the Bay of Bengal and counter American and Indian influence in the region, including Myanmar and Bangladesh.
On all these fronts, the Quad is more consequential, based on geography, capability, necessity and the absence of any better alternative. AUKUS’ scope is seen as too narrow, while Camp David is too regional, and the Squad is too limited. Bilateral alliances are too fragmented, while the Quad is seen to have the scale, reach and flexibility to connect the Indian Ocean and Pacific theatres into one strategic framework
History offers a different lesson now: had India’s proposal been accepted, the war might have ended with far fewer casualties. Instead, the LTTE’s miscalculation culminated in Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination—driven by fears that his return to power would bring back the Indian Peace Keeping Force. The belief that opposing India could achieve a separate Tamil state proved catastrophic.
Neither Bangladesh nor India — including West Bengal — is likely to fully concede its position. The future instead lies in pragmatic compromise, where domestic political constraints are balanced against the imperatives of regional cooperation. Ultimately, the trajectory of India–Bangladesh relations will depend less on identity politics and more on whether both sides can align economic necessity with political will.
The broader reality is that even if a political understanding emerges, restoring confidence in the Strait may take far longer than restoring a ceasefire. Shipping markets operate as much on perception of risk as on military realities. Tanker operators, insurers, charterers, and energy traders require predictability — and that predictability is currently absent.
New Delhi now occupies an awkward middle space: not fully trusted by the West, yet no longer fully aligned with the broader Global South consensus either. That ambiguity becomes riskier if Washington and Beijing move into even a temporary phase of strategic stabilisation.
The major bilateral issue is border security and management. While India claims that millions of Bangladeshis enter India illegally, reside and work here, Bangladesh dismisses that contention outright, saying that as their per capita income was higher than India’s, there was no reason for economic migration from Bangladesh to India.
Nearly 80% of Asia’s energy imports and a large portion of global container traffic move through the Indian Ocean. With conflicts in the Middle East, disruptions in the Red Sea, and increasing great-power competition, freight security has become a strategic economic issue. Sri Lanka is positioning itself not merely as a recipient of investment, but as a regional connector between South Asia, Southeast Asia, and island maritime states.
Military analyst Cooper argued that beyond battlefield outcomes, the operation exposed Pakistan’s inability to deter Indian strikes or mount a damaging counter‑response. He suggested the psychological impact of India’s operations triggered panic within Pakistan’s leadership, eventually driving Islamabad to seek international intervention.
Pakistan’s maritime domain offers multiple avenues for economic and strategic expansion. However, these remain underdeveloped. Coastal tourism has potential but lacks infrastructure and regulation. Offshore energy, including wind and tidal sources, remains largely unexplored. Marine biotechnology is another emerging sector with minimal investment. These gaps reflect a broader issue: the absence of long-term strategic planning
Even with a strong central government in India, West Bengal is likely to retain strategic importance for Bangladesh due to its geographic proximity, shared cultural identity, and direct influence over key bilateral issues such as river water sharing and border management. While Dhaka must formally prioritise engagement with New Delhi for any binding agreements, the practical success of many policies often depends on West Bengal’s political stance and cooperation.
Institutionalising mandatory constituency-level debates, organised by neutral academic or media institutions, can address this gap. These forums would require candidates to engage directly on employment, infrastructure, welfare delivery, governance performance, and manifesto vision.
By repeatedly threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz — the artery through which a significant portion of the world's energy supply flows — it has shown it is willing to inflict suffering on billions of people across India, China, and Africa simply to extract political leverage. A government willing to hold the world's energy supply hostage today will hold the world's existence hostage tomorrow if given the means to do so.
India stands at a historic crossroads. The older frameworks of left-wing politics and the secular-liberal consensus are gradually receding into history. The nation is moving forward on the pillars of development, identity, and global leadership. This is not a temporary wave but a structural transformation.
The current crisis in West Asia offers us a window. In a world where oil routes can be disrupted overnight by wars India did not start, energy independence becomes a sovereign necessity. Every gigawatt of solar power installed is one step away from the Strait of Hormuz. Every electric vehicle on the road is a barrel of oil India does not have to import. Every rooftop panel is a small act of national self-reliance.
South Asia’s problem is not that it lacks importance. Its problem is that it lacks collective strategy. Each country is trying to survive the new order separately. India seeks global-power status. Pakistan seeks strategic relevance and economic stability. Bangladesh seeks balanced partnerships and export security. Sri Lanka seeks recovery. Nepal seeks space between two giants. The Maldives seeks bargaining power. Bhutan seeks quiet sovereignty. Afghanistan seeks recognition and survival.
The sudden amplification of TTP-related narratives in Bangladesh appears strategically timed. Observers note that between August 2024 and February 2026, there were credible concerns regarding the facilitation—both overt and covert—of visits by Pakistan-linked militant actors into Bangladesh. Yet, these developments did not receive comparable international attention.
Bangladesh’s political future depends on whether the BNP can discipline its own networks before citizens conclude that elections only rotate predators. It must act against extortion, land grabbing, political violence, campus capture, and intimidation, not as public relations damage, but as regime-defining threats.
