South Asia’s tragedy is not geography or lack of industrial capacity. It is the failure to convert proximity into predictable partnerships. Trump’s tariff threats could remain episodic political theatre, or they could signal a more protectionist global environment. Either way, South Asia’s dependence on Western concessions exposes it to recurring uncertainty. Reviving SAFTA in spirit and substance would not eliminate trade with the West. It would diversify risk and embed value creation within the region.
The current war has exposed Bangladesh’s structural vulnerabilities: dependence on imported energy, fragile reserves, and narrow fiscal space. For the new government, the stakes are clear—stabilize fuel and food supplies now while building resilience through diversified energy, broader exports, and stronger social protection. Wars in the Gulf may be fought thousands of miles away, but their economic shockwaves reach Bangladesh within days. In the end, the crisis will be felt in three simple pressures shaping everyday life: oil prices, food costs, and migrant jobs.
This crisis did not emerge overnight. It is a product of neglecting the foundational capacity to invest in human capital, where Pakistan hardly puts less than 2% of its national GDP on human capital factors. Meanwhile, the regional peers like Bangladesh and India invest more in education and health, and Pakistan is still trapped in a cycle of short-term fiscal thinking, political instability, and elite capture that is systematically hollowing out the nation’s potential to rise and grow.
In 2026, the “strategic autonomy” that we so often discuss must evolve from a defensive crouch to a balanced offensive infrastructure play. India’s success will be measured by its ability to convince the Trump administration that a stable, digitally-sovereign BRICS is actually a better trade partner than a chaotic, bankrupt one.
India’s multi-dimensional and wide-ranging relationship with Russia, with strategic issues, defence and energy security as bulwarks, has been one of the critical pillars of its foreign policy, one it will try to ensure remains vibrant and mutually beneficial and supportive during Putin’s visit, despite pressures. If, additionally, it can gain global stature by furthering a peace agreement on Ukraine, New Delhi will consider it a visit well done.
Foreign observers sometimes miss the broader shift. Since 2022, Pakistan’s national-security leadership has been engaged in what scholars would call a “deterrence-rebuilding project” across multiple fronts: Balochistan, the former tribal areas, the eastern border, and now the west. Each operation has been calibrated to restore the adversary’s respect for Pakistani red lines without triggering an all-out war.
What makes this moment especially dangerous is the eerie sense of déjà vu. Bangladesh has stood at crossroads before: 1996, when disputed elections pushed the country into chaos; 2006, when clashes opened the door for a military-backed caretaker; and 2014, when an opposition boycott led to a hollow election. Each time, the consequences were severe; each time, political leaders promised the nation had learned its lesson. Yet here we are again, watching democracy unravel in slow motion.
Investigations by India’s National Investigation Agency (NIA) and Delhi Police in the recent Delhi bombing have indicated the plausibility of a transnational chain of coordination, linking operatives in India with handlers abroad, including individuals based in Turkey. NIA investigations identified a handler, codenamed 'Ukasa', reportedly located in Ankara, Turkey. Travel records confirmed several accused in the case of having visited Turkey between August and September 2022, where they reportedly met Syrian operatives while communicating with Pakistan-linked handlers.
This is not an argument against the personal faith of soldiers, nor a denial of the cultural identity of the majority. It is an argument for institutional restraint, for secular professionalism, and for recognizing that the military must represent all Indians, not only the largest community or the ruling party’s ideological core.
On the evening of 10th November, a car exploded near Delhi’s Red Fort which took the lives of 13 people. Within the next six hours of the explosion, a confessional video in perfect Hindi language from Jaish-e-Muhammad starts circulating on WhatsApp and national television in India. In the next 12 hours the video had been seen by 40 million people. But what made it intriguing was that within 24 hours many of the AI detection tools marked the video 99.9% synthetic.
The ISI–LeT nexus remains the most destabilizing factor in South Asia’s security architecture. With Pakistan actively leveraging its ideological networks in Bangladesh, the region faces the prospect of a renewed wave of cross-border terrorism. The alignment of extremist elements across Pakistan and Bangladesh not only threatens India’s national security but also endangers the stability of the entire subcontinent.
Iran’s influence among Shia communities across South Asia represents an additional layer reinforcing its position in the Muslim world—one that has not been decisively weakened by the 12-day conflict. On the contrary, anti-Israel and, in some cases, anti-Western sentiments among South Asian Muslims have intensified, offering Tehran new opportunities to leverage these emotions in favour of its strategic endgame.
Perhaps the gravest failure of the UNFCCC process is its lack of accountability. As Guterres stated, “It’s no longer time for negotiations. It’s time for implementation.” But what happens when countries do not implement? Seventy-nine countries have yet to submit their 2025 NDCs—even after extended deadlines. Surprisingly, this includes India, the only major economy not to submit revised NDCs, and the only South Asian country (excluding Afghanistan) yet to do so. These NDCs were critical for initiating the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG).
Walk into a gathering of South Asians abroad, in the U.S., the Gulf, Europe, and you will see Akhand Bharat in its simplest form. People do not ask, “Are you Indian or Pakistani?” They connect over language, food, festivals, music, accents, humour, and the familiar comfort of shared culture. A Tamilian and a Sindhi, a Bengali and a Pashtun, a Punjabi Hindu and a Pakistani Muslim, outside the subcontinent, they all recognise the common civilisational thread instantly. What divides them here, unites them there.
Handing over strategic projects in Balochistan to China or the US raises serious concerns of neo-colonialism. Both states pursue imperialist designs and expansionist ambitions to protect their own interests, which could further inflame the insurgency and unrest in the province. The state is playing with fire and must carefully reconsider its approach to such a sensitive region.
The condition of Afghan women remains a moral boundary influencing the extent of India’s cooperation. And Afghanistan’s strategic relevance—access to Central Asia, regional security, and geopolitical influence—remains as important as ever. India’s present policy appears guided by the belief that sustained presence and dialogue, rather than isolation, offer the best chance of protecting long-term stability, influence, and national interests.
The Yunus regime insists that general elections will be held in February 2026. Few serious analysts believe this promise. There is a growing belief that Yunus, with backing from Pakistan, Turkey, segments of the EU, and parts of the US establishment, plans to remain in power indefinitely. Barring secular and leftist parties from participating is part of this plan. The election timetable is a smokescreen
When minorities feel alienated or discriminated against, their distrust of state institutions grows, undermining the social fabric essential for national security. Strengthening this fabric involves upholding constitutional equality and ensuring no community feels marginalised. By fully integrating minorities as valued members of the national community, India can diminish the impact of radical ideologies and foster a genuinely resilient society united against terror threats.
Beyond India–Bhutan relations, the visit conveys a wider message to South Asia: cooperation grounded in respect, development, and stability remains essential in an uncertain global environment. As the region evolves, India appears to recognize the importance of maintaining strong partnerships without pressuring smaller neighbors or escalating strategic competition.
