Donald Trump’s emphatic win in the presidential race stunned America and the world, proving Allan Licthman (America’s Nostradamus) wrong in predicting Kamala Harris the winner. Earlier, Trump had said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi coming for the Quad Summit in the US would meet him. But Modi did not meet Trump (perhaps unsure of his winning), unlike Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu meeting Biden, Trump and Harris when he visited America.  

China perhaps was the only one sure of Trump’s win. The Wall Street Journal of November 5, 2024, reveals Chinese hackers spied on America’s senior national security and policy officials, politicians, persons affiliated with Trump and Harris campaigns, and contacts with whom they communicated for more than eight months, piercing America’s communications infrastructure and companies (some on Pentagon contract) complying with court-authorized surveillance requests. 

China would have anticipated more sanctions, additional tariffs on Chinese products and America-China decoupling under Trump 2.0, which explains China thawing relations with India (on Chinese terms) to fully access Indian markets, recent business pacts with Indonesia, and the like.

Trump may make disruptive changes

Among the radical changes planned by Trump is complete overhaul of America’s “deep state” (https://youtu.be/NcMVdh915AE?si=bqKk7ygLphX20jLB). How this would shape in Trump 2.0 and what after that remains to be seen, considering the deep state’s belief: governments come and go but we remain forever.

Recall Trump’s televised speech from Fort Myer, Arlington (Virginia) on August 21, 2017, sternly warning Pakistan to stop sheltering and exporting terror. But Pakistan never stopped and America signed a Pakistan-scripted peace deal with the Taliban.  Now all  military officials implicated in treasonous withdrawal from Afghanistan are to submit resignations  on  Inauguration Day - January 20, 2025  (https://x.com/TaraBull808/status/1854531757326168471?t=WsBkr2h-4W62CmiZZwk_ng&s=08). But what of the $92 billion worth weapons and armament gifted to Taliban? Why is America continuing to fund the  Taliban after US troops withdrew?

Would the deep state overhaul include America’s social media giants, the Henry Luce Foundation and George Soros’ Open Society Foundation who interfered in Indian elections and want to destabilize India  (https://insightful.co.in/2024/06/09/curious-case-of-western-deep-state-and-the-indian-elections/)? What about the CIA-engineered coup making Bangladesh another Afghanistan; presently engaged in ethnically cleansing of minorities?  What about the CIA-protected Khalistan-extremists?

Getting America’s economy back on track would be a major challenge for Trump after the havoc wreaked by the POTUS Joe Biden’s administration. This would imply tightening the belts and cutting the flab of both government and private entities. We may witness mass layoffs, also affecting the NRIs. Employment-wise preference is likely to be given to Christians, and within that to white Christians.

There would likely be curbs on sending money out of America (unlike the super-rich heading corporations in India), including heavy taxation on outflow of money. This would affect remittances to India.  Trump would unlikely view India’s dealings with Russia and China kindly – there could be sanctions plus tariffs on Indian exports. Trump is determined to revert immigrants, which reportedly include some nine lakh Indians.

Will Trump act against Pakistan?

At the geopolitical level, how soon Trump can end the war in Ukraine remains ambiguous. He spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin not to escalate the war, but not to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for mounting the largest drone attack on Russia since hostilities began. Ceasefire will depend on what exactly is Trump’s plan, which reportedly also includes a UN force in a buffer zone between the existing ground positions on both sides. Whatever the plan, it may be easier to execute it if Zelensky is replaced by someone else.

As to the Middle East, Netanyahu has Trump’s blank cheque, which means Palestinians remain doomed (heading towards extinction?) and without voting rights (forget two-state solution),  while  Lebanon and Yemen would continue getting attacked. Iran can expect more sanctions but war on Iran can set the Middle East afire, seriously affecting the global economy. This would also impact Indian investments in Iran’s Chabahar Port and use of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC)

Iran and Pakistan have signed a deal to jointly fight the Baloch independence movement. With his intent to confront China, it would be interesting to watch whether Trump will promote the independence of Balochistan, Sindh and Pashtunistan, cutting off Pakistan’s access to the sea, China’s access to the Arabian Sea, severely impacting the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and its extension into Afghanistan.

(The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal)