If Jamaat comes to power it will likely begin with populist moves such as anti-corruption drives, predicts Ahmedur Chowdhury, a Bangladeshi writer and editor who has been living in Norway since surviving a 2015 attack. He says he fears mobilisation of religious groups to push for declaring Bangladesh an Islamic republic and enforce Sharia law. The result would be shrinking freedoms for women, curbs on cultural life, and serious threats to freedom of expression, religious minorities, and secular political and cultural spaces.
The threat from ISIS-K is real and growing. A resurgence in Pakistan would have serious implications for the broader region, including India. The danger is compounded if Pakistan once again attempts to clandestinely redirect ISIS-K towards Kashmir. What may appear as an isolated terror incident is, in fact, part of a wider pattern that demands sustained vigilance. Pakistan’s internal security instability risks creating openings for cross-border terror movements, potentially hardening new militant modules aimed at India and beyond.
The optimistic view is that the “Twin Election” will force a compromise. The referendum provides a mandate for reform that even a BNP government cannot ignore. The “July Charter”, if ratified, creates checks on executive power that did not exist before. The students, even if they end up on the opposition benches, will form a moral pressure group that cannot be easily crushed. The cynical view is that Bangladesh is merely swapping a monopoly for a duopoly, or worse, a monopoly of a different colour.
All signs point to a BNP victory. In a competitive contest without the Awami League, the BNP’s organisational depth and electoral reach make it the frontrunner. Yet victory alone may not translate into authority. The absence of the Awami League, the continued influence of Sheikh Hasina from exile, the rise of Islamist alternatives, and the central role of unelected institutions mean that any new government will inherit a fractured polity. The 2026 election may revive the BNP’s fortunes, but it will not by itself heal Bangladesh’s democratic wounds.
The Ambala media extravaganza ought to encourage an internal review by the Modi government about strategic communication and related signalling in matters military. Carry a big stick but talk softly is an adage that has not lost its relevance, writes C Uday Bhaskar for South Asia Monitor
Trade instruments like the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) and the Indo-Sri Lanka Free Trade (ISFTA) agreements are some of the gainful tools with which the US can use to access South Asia’s consumer markets, write Srimal Fernando and Vedangshi Roy Choudhuri for South Asia Monitor
It is high time that the child marriage rate - gone up during the pandemic - should be brought down drastically and for this, the Bangladesh government, NGOs, and society at large should work together to put an end to this menace, writes Sarmin Akter for South Asia Monitor
Cross border marriage, i.e., matrimony between Nepali son/daughter and India’s son/daughter, is very common in bordering districts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. This is the reason why Nepal's Madheshis treat Indian soil as their relatives’ home, not a foreign land, write Jivesh Jha & Roshan Kumar Jha for South Asia Monitor
The Chinese had realised that not only were they outnumbered but totally outflanked, making their position untenable. Any armed clash hereafter would have been suicidal, writes Anil Bhat for South Asia Monitor
India has tremendous goodwill and support from the international community which will influence Chinese future manoeuvres against India, writes Lt Gen PR Kumar (retd) for South Asia Monitor
Though the party crisis seems to have blown over, for the time being, the future of the Congress does not appear to be bright. And it has nothing to do with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), writes Vinod Aggarwal for South Asia Monitor
India-Bangladesh relations have grown deeper and wider in scope in the past decade. But irritants and hitches can develop between neighbours with even the best of ties, writes Shubha Singh for South Asia Monitor
It can safely be concluded that 2020 is the year the Indian American community has become relevant in American politics, writes Frank Islam for South Asia Monitor
Oncologists across the world have expressed concern over the probability of rising cancer mortality and morbidity, not because of the coronavirus pandemic per se, but because of the inability of the healthcare system to treat cancers as it normally should, writes Dr (Col) R Ranga Rao for South Asia Monitor
Bangladesh takes a neutral position to whatever happens between the two Asian giants, but Chinese President Xi Jinping's growing influence and strong defence ties with Bangladesh are making India concerned, writes Sarmin Akhter for South Asia Monitor
Using the controversial Act as a tool the Bangladesh government has tried to keep surveillance on journalists, and also to repress and muffle the independent voices in social media and traditional mass media, writes Aashish Kiphayet for South Asia Monitor
That Mukherjee influenced former prime minister Manmohan Singh’s decision to grant Bangladesh a billion dollars, the highest India had then extended to any single country, and that the amount was almost tripled when Hasina-led Bangladesh absorbed it all, is not very well known, writes Mahendra Ved for South Asia Monitor
India and China will do their best to edge each other out in their competition for dominance in the Bay of Bengal and will try to squeeze an economically weak Bangladesh, writes Lt Gen PR Kumar (retd) for South Asia Monitor
Despite all this, Myanmar should expect China to keep tightening its vice-like grip using terrorists, writes Lt Gen Prakash Katoch (retd) for South Asia Monitor
