Sri Lanka’s political debate has long revolved around spy narratives, often casting suspicion on India and the United States. Yet, this fixation risks obscuring a more pressing reality. CrowdStrike’s 2025 Global Threat Report identifies Chinese espionage agencies as the most active worldwide, surpassing even the CIA. In 2024, China’s cyber operations expanded by 150 percent, while attacks on financial services, media, manufacturing, and industrial sectors surged by 200 to 300 percent compared to the previous year.
As Imran Khan enters his seventies behind bars, the stakes extend far beyond his individual fate. Should his detention continue—or worse, should harm befall him in custody—the consequences could be explosive. Public anger, already simmering, may erupt into widespread unrest, challenging the state’s ability to maintain control.
Bangladesh has survived partition, the liberation war, famine, floods, military coups, and democratic collapse. It has always returned. But returning is not the same as resolving. Fifty-six years after independence, the founding paradox remains: a nation whose birth is still debated cannot fully inhabit its future. The gun salutes will be loud and unambiguous. The questions they echo, however, about what Bangladesh is, who founded it, and whose vision should guide it, remain, as they have always been
For India, this raises complex challenges. Historically, India has positioned itself as a strong advocate of anti-colonialism and sovereignty. However, in the current context, its responses have often appeared measured and cautious, despite the direct implications for its interests—ranging from energy security and regional stability to strategic initiatives such as connectivity through Iran.
This fully unfettered approach to everything Trump does also has serious consequences for India. At least through the duration of the Trump administration until 2028, the Modi government will have to spread around its geostrategic and geoeconomic needs among various countries such as Japan, Australia, Germany, France and the United Kingdom or collectives such as the European Union, even as it deals with America with some judicious leveraging.
The ruling governments in Bangladesh often seek to use these laws in various ways. Critical expression, especially criticism of the government or raising questions about religion, can be met with swift arrest and harassment through laws such as the Digital Security Act (DSA). In addition, allegations of religious blasphemy are used to pressure and marginalize political opponents, opposition parties, and dissenting voices. Religious extremist groups use these laws to promote their ideology or to intimidate people of different faiths or those who hold non-religious views.
The question now is whether Washington’s ambitions end with Venezuela—or whether this marks a broader return to Cold War-style regional dominance. History suggests that when smaller states fail to act as “good neighbors,” interventions by great powers become inevitable. India’s interventions under Indira Gandhi illustrate this dynamic in South Asia. As Henry Kissinger observed, “to create order, it is necessary to create it within regions first and then relate them to each other.”
Contrary to popular belief, migration is not primarily a one-way movement from poor countries to rich ones. Nearly half of all migration from the Global South occurs between developing countries themselves, rather than towards the affluent Global North. Indeed, South-South migration, often taking place across contiguous borders with porous controls, is believed to account for nearly 80% of such flows.
Aside from digital platforms for women-owned business, another concrete example could be to foster women-led marketplaces. Located along borders between the two countries, these could be designed to be safe, offering clean facilities and childcare. Stable and lower cost customs and visa processes could help restore trade relations and the trust of local communities affected by conflict.
There is a difference between a BRICS common currency and de-dollarisation. While trade in local currencies is a compulsion due to sanctions and other changes in the global economic landscape, a BRICS common currency is not feasible due to economic and geopolitical reasons. India’s presidency of BRICS will be important, since it will have to walk a fine balance. While voicing the concerns of the Global South it would not want to get caught in a zero-sum geopolitical wrangling.
The year 2025 marked a mix of turbulent times for Pakistan with weakening yet stabilising economy, fractured, fragile polity and civil society, rise in enforced disappearances and heightened militancy. It also saw diplomatic initiatives with Asian states and resurgence of engagement with the United States. Overall, the Deep State with Pakistani Army leadership at the core continues to dominate the governance structures and institutions, further impinging on the democratic credentials of the country.
It is clear that in those 'virtual' negotiations, the participating sides were the US, Russia and China. The EU, including Denmark, the country whose territory Greenland is, was not. India neither. The old rule that if you are not part of the negotiations, you are likely a subject to the decisions, holds true. Possible future steps would include annexation of Greenland, as indicated by Trump on multiple occasions, including also in interviews after the Venezuela takeover. This would achieve another objective – to weaken the EU further, as no EU state will likely challenge the US if the annexation happens.
When cricket is weaponized against Bangladesh while India’s own internal challenges are ignored, the message is unmistakable: power, not principle, is guiding moral judgment. This undermines the very spirit of Neighborhood First, which depends on trust and even‑handedness. Over time, such practices erode confidence, deepen asymmetry, and weaken the foundations of cooperation.
South Asia’s unemployment challenge is unfolding differently across different regional countries, yet driven by almost similar structural failures. India’s scale magnifies the risks of jobless growth; Pakistan’s instability deepens youth disillusionment; Sri Lanka’s educated unemployment reflects long-standing policy neglect; and Bangladesh’s export-led success masks limited employment diversification. Unless these states move beyond fragmented schemes and adopt employment-centred growth, skill-linked education, and gender-inclusive labour reforms, the region’s youthful population will shift from being a potential dividend to a shared strategic vulnerability.
Uttar Pradesh, the country's most populous state, offers an even starker illustration of how symbolic minority marginalisation is being normalised. This year, the BJP government of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath directed schools to remain open on December 25 and mandated programmes commemorating former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s birth anniversary instead of observing Christmas as a holiday. In isolation, such decisions may appear administratively defensible. Taken together, they signal a deeper shift in which civic space for religious minorities is steadily shrinking.
For example, the recent recruitment drive for thousands of home-based caregiver positions in Israel, promoted by the Labour, Employment, Skill Development and Entrepreneurship Department of the Mizoram state government in northeastern India, was a striking example of institutionalised labour diplomacy. The advertisement clearly outlined the eligibility criteria, certification requirements and employment terms. Such initiatives would prove essential for state accountability and worker protection in the international political and legal arena.
India today sits at the bottom of the rank of countries in the Environmental Performance Index (EPI), which combines a range of indicators like climate change mitigation, air pollution, waste management, sustainability of fisheries and agriculture, deforestation, and biodiversity protection. The EPI is produced by centres working under Yale and Columbia universities. The 2024 listing showed India at rank 176 out of 180, just ahead of Pakistan (rank 179) but behind Bangladesh (175), China (156), and Sri Lanka (134).
Overall, 2025 was a tough year for India’s foreign policy with choices being curtailed and by the end of the year India’s foreign policy once again appears to be driven more by constraints, opportunities and choices.
Through vulnerability analytics, AI can highlight populations more likely to struggle with recovery, including plantation communities, low-income families, and settlements located on flood plains. India has already allocated a US$450 million fund for Sri Lanka’s post-cyclone recovery. The joint committee established by India and Sri Lanka to manage this fund will be able to implement AI-based disaster warning systems under Sri Lanka’s digitalisation programme, which is being supported by India.
