Over the past two months, a series of alleged push-in incidents along the Bangladesh-India border has reportedly left scores of people stranded in zero-line and no-man's-land areas under difficult conditions.
The central message at the Shangri-La Dialogue is that America is staying, but on new terms. It will remain the core military balancer in the Indo-Pacific, but it expects allies and partners to become serious contributors. The era of strategic free-riding is ending. The new Indo-Pacific order will increasingly be defined by those willing and able to share the burden of preserving it.
The CEPS conference shows Pakistan is shifting the Indus issue from technical water management to geopolitical norm contest. That’s the key transition. Once a river dispute enters Brussels policy networks, international arbitration, climate diplomacy, and security discourse it becomes much harder to keep it bilateral. And that is likely Pakistan’s main strategic objective.
The Islamabad Memorandum has bought time. But time is not neutral. It can be used to construct a more durable settlement, or by spoilers in Washington, Tehran and Tel Aviv to rebuild the case for war. The ceasefire will endure only if the difficult questions postponed in Islamabad are answered before those who opposed the truce succeed in answering them on the battlefield.
In a way, we are following the path of Pakistan and Sri Lanka. In Pakistan (Islamic nationalism), the hate manufactured against Hindus and Christians did result in their persecution there. In Sri Lanka (Buddhist Sinhala nationalism), Hindus (Tamils), Muslims and Christians have been on the receiving end of the consequences of hate.
The unceasing political chaos and the absence of a national consensus regarding the existential threat that stares Pakistan in the face are deteriorating the already fragile state of affairs. Political instability and economic meltdown not only compounds the system of governance but also create a fertile breeding ground for terrorism.
The rallying of such forces gives rise to fratricidal killings. Adivasis are close-knit groups. Pitting to kill one against the other sponsored by the State gives rise to not just distrust among the members of the group but against the State as well. The enmity that is being created among the Adivasis will have a long-term impact.
India needs to develop a more muscular political, diplomatic and military policy against China, military muscularity being contingent on political will. With clear designs on Indian territory, China cares two hoots about military-to-military cooperation.
The forthcoming SCO Defence Ministers' Meet at New Delhi on April 27-28, followed by the SCO Foreign Ministers Meet in Goa on May 5, and the G20 Summit in September 2023 in New Delhi will have participation by China, where ample scope for bilateral meetings exists. It is high time the Indian defence minister, foreign minister, and prime minister discuss the issue directly with their Chinese counterparts to determine what exactly the Chinese intentions are.
By establishing a bridge between South Asia and Southeast Asia, fostering closer interregional cooperation, and integrating Bangladesh into regional and global value chains, Japan's Bay of Bengal Industrial Growth Belt (BIG-B), an initiative for changing South Asia's economic outlook, can play a significant role in pitching Bangladesh into the center of the regional economy.
During his final weeks, Zafrullah was still thinking of the work that needed to be done. Having been a champion for maternal and child health for more than 50 years, he said we must think about old people and what must be done for the ageing population of Bangladesh.
Next month Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be in Sydney for the Quad Summit and would also hold bilateral discussions with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who was in New Delhi barely a month ago, reflecting the rapidly growing strategic partnership. At the meeting, education and research are likely to feature as a topic of discussion.
Afghanistan need not immerse itself in the Pakistan-China camp, as it would provoke India and the US. Afghanistan’s foreign policy now requires preparing for a multilateral relationship, prioritizing the economically driven interests of Afghanistan.
After the 2015 earthquakes in Nepal, human trafficking spiked. There were even early and forced marriages and widows were at risk of receiving unwanted sexual attention. Since there is hardly any gender-neutral discourse to the mitigation of gender-based violence after climate change, attempts are increasingly being made to change the gender-blind discourse on climate change and disaster management.
With Bangladesh gaining a strong presence within South Asia, India has also sought to increase energy cooperation with Bangladesh. This is evident from the Modi-Hasina summit in September last year and India’s aim to expand cooperation and dialogue amongst the BBIN countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal).
The severity of the period poverty crisis in Sri Lanka calls for immediate action to ensure that the right to dignity of Sri Lankan girls and women is secured. Much responsibility lies in the hands of the government to shape interlinked national policies by correctly recognizing the priorities.
The question is can South Asia's political leadership take that flight of imagination to open the doors to cross-border cultural engagement and let the fusion of regional harmonies create a new cultural identity for South Asia?
Pakistan currently ranks as the ‘second-worst’ among all 146 countries on the Gender Parity Index 2022, trailing only Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, which took the top spot. With over 5,200 women reportedly raped in 2021, the country has one of the lowest rape conviction rates in South Asia – less than 3 per cent.
Modi should invite as special guests the literally-sinking SIDS - Vanuatu, Maldives, Sri Lanka and Singapore - as special guests to G20 along with former Maldivian president and present Majlis (parliament) speaker Mohamed Nasheed and Erick Solheim, former environment minister of Norway, who strongly connects South Asia’s climate future to global peace.
